PROWEIN BUSINESS REPORT 2025

Commissioned by ProWein, Geisenheim University surveyed over 1,300 experts from across the global wine value chain in late 2024 for the eighth consecutive year. These industry insiders, representing more than 30 countries, include wine producers from major wine-growing regions in Europe and overseas, exporters, importers, specialist wine merchants, and representatives from the food service, hospitality, and hotel sectors. This year’s report incorporates an enhanced methodology to capture the diverse perspectives and conditions across different countries and regions. For the first time, responses are representatively weighted for both producers and trade indices based on OIV data, providing a more comprehensive and balanced overview.

The ProWein Business Report continues the tradition of ProWein’s Market Barometer, a unique and regular insight tool that has illuminated the international wine industry since 2017. The 2025 report identifies key challenges facing the sector amidst the ongoing economic crisis and highlights solutions that industry experts believe can help the wine trade adapt to evolving consumer demands.

“The wine industry is at a pivotal crossroads. While the worst effects of rising costs for producers appear to have been overcome in most countries, producers and the wine trade now face the challenge of adapting to rapidly changing consumer preferences,” explains Prof. Simone Loose, Head of the Institute for Wine and Beverage Business at Geisenheim University. She highlights a crucial finding from the ProWein Business Report: “Developing new products and finding innovative communication strategies will be essential to ensuring wine remains competitive against other beverages. For the sector’s value creation, it is crucial to continue conveying the benefits of premium products to today’s consumers and the next generation.”

Economic Challenges and Changing Consumer Behaviour Dominate Industry Concerns

Economic challenges and shifting consumer behaviour remain top concerns for the wine industry. Although cost pressures have eased slightly, falling from an index value of 73 to 65, they continue to pose significant challenges, particularly for producers in Germany, the US, the New World, and Spain, as well as for retailers in the UK and Ireland.

Consumers’ reduced spending power and the global economic downturn continue to impact the global wine trade. About half of producers and trade experts cite declining wine consumption due to health concerns and a shift toward alternative beverages as critical challenges. This issue is especially pronounced in North America and among producers in Austria, Portugal, and Germany.

Awareness of stricter alcohol policies has also grown significantly over the past two surveys, with industry concern rising by about ten index points each year. Currently, 43% of experts see stricter alcohol policies as a key challenge. This concern is particularly prevalent among retailers in Belgium and the UK/Ireland, as well as producers in the New World, Austria, and Portugal. Addressing these challenges will require coordinated industry efforts, improved communication, and strategic adaptation of product portfolios.

Meanwhile, international trade restrictions remain a consistent concern. The incoming US president and China's global trade policies are viewed as major risks, especially by wine producers in France, who see these issues as significant challenges in the coming years.

Industry Barometer – Mixed Outlook for 2025

The economic situation in 2024 presents a mixed picture for wine producers and the wine trade. While most producer countries experienced a slight decline compared to 2023, this trend was particularly pronounced among wine producers in Germany. In contrast, producers in Portugal and the New World reported a significant improvement in their economic conditions. Looking ahead to 2025, producers from Portugal, the New World, Spain, and France are optimistic, whereas those in Italy, Austria, and Germany foresee a less favourable economic outlook.

For retailers and the on-trade, most countries saw a modest improvement in their economic situation in 2024 compared to 2023, with Germany as the notable exception. Expectations for 2025 are more positive in Southern Europe, the Netherlands, and the UK/Ireland, where further improvements are anticipated. However, retailers and the on-trade in Austria and Switzerland, Eastern Europe, and Germany remain more cautious and less optimistic about the year ahead.

Sales Volume Decline and Changing Price Preferences in 2024

Most producers reported a decline in sales volume for 2024, with the decrease being particularly pronounced among producers in Germany, France, and Austria. Portugal was the only country where a higher share of producers reported an increase in sales volume.

On the trade side, retailers in the Netherlands and Southern Europe managed to grow their sales volumes. However, other regions, especially North America, Austria, Switzerland, and Germany, experienced notable declines.

In addition to declining sales volumes, most producers observed a shift toward lower price points, particularly among producers in Portugal, France, and the New World. This trend aligns with reports from the trade sector.

While the Netherlands, Germany, and Austria recorded price increases, markets in the UK/Ireland, Scandinavia, and North America saw consumers gravitate toward lower-priced products, reflecting shifts in purchasing behaviour.

Expected Future Trends for Price Segments

Retailers foresee a continuation of current trends in the wine market, though with notable regional differences. Only retailers in the Netherlands and Germany anticipate growth in the market share of premium and super-premium wines. In contrast, retailers in North America, Austria, Switzerland, and Scandinavia expect these segments to decline.

For mid-range wines, retailers in the Netherlands, Southern Europe, and Scandinavia predominantly predict an increase in market share, while those in North America and Eastern Europe expect a decline.

A majority of retailers and the on-trade anticipate growth in the market share of popular wines at lower and entry-level price points. This expectation is especially strong in Austria/Switzerland, the UK/Ireland, Scandinavia, and Germany.

Premiumisation: A Challenge for the Future of the Wine Sector

Over the past two decades, premiumisation has driven success in the wine sector, enabling trade value growth even as global wine volumes stagnated. However, industry experts are increasingly questioning whether this strategy can remain sustainable in the future.

Only half of industry experts believe premium and super-premium wines are resilient to economic downturns. Furthermore, 50% of the wine trade acknowledges that the current pricing of super-premium wines has reached unsustainable levels, limiting their growth potential.

In light of these concerns, the wine industry must innovate and develop strategies to attract younger generations, who will eventually replace today’s premium wine consumers. The majority of industry experts agree that adapting marketing and communication strategies will be vital for engaging new consumer segments. Building stronger connections between premium products and sustainability, lifestyle integration, and unique experiences will be crucial to maintaining relevance and ensuring long-term growth in a competitive market.

The ProWein Business Talk on 14 January will explore expert insights into the future of wine communication. The vast majority of wine producers and trade professionals agree that wine communication strategies must evolve. Join the webinar to discover which communication elements industry experts recommend prioritising or reducing to better connect with today’s consumers.

Product Trends for 2024 and Beyond

In 2024, retailers and the on-trade observed a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with increased purchases of sparkling wine, white wine, rosé wine, and low- and no-alcohol wines. Experts anticipate these trends to persist in the coming years.

Sparkling and white wines lead the list of trending products across all international markets. However, preferences for low-alcohol and dealcoholized wines show significant regional variation. Low-alcohol wines are particularly favored in Southern and Eastern Europe as well as Scandinavia, while zero-alcohol or dealcoholized wines have strong growth potential in the Netherlands, Germany, and Austria.

Interestingly, other non-alcoholic beverages, such as sparkling tea and kombucha, closely follow dealcoholized wines in popularity, especially in the UK/Ireland, Belgium, and the Netherlands.

Red wines are generally perceived as less trendy than dealcoholized wines in many markets, except for Southern and Eastern Europe, where they remain more popular. Natural and orange wines are highlighted more frequently as trendy in the UK/Ireland, Southern Europe, and the Netherlands.

Fortified wines, aromatized wines, and proxy wines are rarely seen as trending products. Only aromatized wines gain slightly higher popularity in Eastern Europe, where they are considered trendier than average.

The rapidly shifting preferences of consumers present a significant challenge for producers and retailers, who must adapt their portfolios and develop new products to meet these demands. The ProWein Business Talk on 14 January will delve into expert perspectives on the key attributes necessary for successful product development and how to effectively communicate these attributes to consumers.

ProWein Business Talk Shaping the Future of Wine – 14 January 2025

Industry leaders Maren Lahm, CMO of Henkell-Freixenet, and Piero Mastroberardino of Federvino and the eponymous premium Italian wine estate in Apulia, will join Prof. Dr. Simone Loose to discuss the findings of the ProWein Business Survey. The discussion will focus on the future of premium wines, the development of innovative beverages, and how wine communication should evolve to meet. Free registration for the online webinar is possible here. Don’t miss the discussion with key industry playsers.

ProSpirits Report and ProWein Business Forum

In 2025, ProWein will provide comprehensive market insights from all its fairs, tailored to the wine and spirits sector. The inaugural ProSpirits Business Survey, featuring key industry findings, will be published in February. Additionally, recent trends in the spirits market will be explored at the ProWein Business Forum, taking place on 18 March during ProWein in Düsseldorf.

Later in the year, we will present valuable insights into the future development of wine markets in Asia and South America through the ProWine Business Reports from Shanghai, Singapore, Hong Kong, and São Paulo. We are excited to share these global market perspectives with you throughout the year.

About the Study

This study was commissioned by ProWein and conducted by the Institute for Wine and Beverage Business at Geisenheim University, under the leadership of Prof. Dr. Simone Loose. Geisenheim University is internationally renowned for its excellence in wine science research and education.

ProWein and Geisenheim University are committed to the continued success of the ProWein Business Report in the coming years. This initiative serves as a unique, global, and regular “market barometer,” addressing key industry questions and exploring annual special focus topics.

We extend our sincere thanks to all survey participants and encourage wine producers and marketers to continue their valuable contributions to this ongoing project.

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